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Agriculture:
50 Years from Now
By:
Saikat Kumar
Basu*
Agriculture has been the
cornerstone of human success since the dawn of human civilization in every
corner of the planet. However, in the future, several factors could pose serious
challenges to agricultural practices, such as lack of an opportunity to expand
land areas used for agriculture without disturbing virgin forest areas; our
ability to effectively meet demands for food by the ever increasing human
population; our ability to meet demands for a reduction in the use of
agro-chemicals for ecological concerns; our ability to address environmental
issues such as our contribution to global warming through cattle ranching and
production of certain crops and our ability to reduce surface run off
contamination from agricultural fields polluting adjacent freshwater and
groundwater resources. Additionally, our ability to respond to fluctuating
weather patterns and sporadic outbreaks of pests and diseases will also demand
attention.
Future success in agriculture will
depend upon judicious and industrious use of available resources and efficient
use and integration of newer technologies. Biotechnology is expected to play a
big role in producing genetically engineered designer crop varieties that are
resistant to a multitude of diseases, adapted to different stress environments,
have high yield attributes and can grow even under low agricultural input of
under developed countries and enhance food security.
The recent biofuel frenzy may
change the equation of balance among production of different crop varieties
upside down. Although the economics of producing so called biofuel is much
higher than conventional non-renewable fuel resources, it is currently looked at
from a positive environmental perspective only. It may be a nice alternative in
theory; but such ambitious industrial scale bio-ethanol production may have
serious future implications to agriculture at large and impact the society in a
big way. Farmers may prefer to grow only high value cash crops (like biofuel
crops). This could lead to initial financial success on one hand, but very
serious long term threats to global food security on the other. Giant
multinational companies would heavily invest in buying cheap land and labour in
the developing or under developed countries to keep the crop production cost low
to maximize their profits from ethanol production. Many poor farmers may fall
victim to their lucrative and aggressive economic trap and lose both their land
and income over short term interest permanently. Higher incomes in Asia and
ethanol subsidies in America have put an end to the falling food prices.
Increasing wealth in upcoming giant economies like that of China will demand
more meat in future which in turn could possibly place increased demands for
more grains to feed these animals. While in 1985, per capita consumption of meat
per annum was 20 kg in China; in 2007 it has been around 50 kg per capita per
year. A shift in diet is multiplied many times in grain markets-3 kg of cereals
produce 1 kg of pork, while 8 kg of grains produce 1 kg of beef.
Agricultural economists feel that
such agriculture induced inflation may have serious negative impacts on the
economic growth of several countries in not so distant future. The higher
expenditure to be incurred due to limited availability of land resources for
growing food crops and enhanced cost of advanced technology-dependent agronomic
practices may force new farmers to look for alternative jobs in developed
countries may lead to financial crises and social unrest in poorer countries.
Without long term policy and technological innovations to support the current
level of productivity (suitable both for developed and under developed
countries), the future of agriculture may not be that rosy.
*Department of
Biological Sciences, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive,
Lethbridge, AB Canada T1K 3M4
E-mail:
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